American Economic Journal:
Economic Policy
ISSN 1945-7731 (Print) | ISSN 1945-774X (Online)
Algorithmic Risk Assessment in the Hands of Humans
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
vol. 16,
no. 4, November 2024
(pp. 382–414)
Abstract
We evaluate the impacts of adopting algorithmic risk assessments in sentencing. We find that judges changed sentencing practices in response to the risk assessment, but that discretion played a large role in mediating its impact. Judges deviated from the recommendations associated with the algorithm in systematic ways, suggestive of alternative objectives. As a result, risk assessment did not lead to detectable gains in terms of public safety or reduced incarceration rates. Using simulations, we show that strict adherence to the sentencing recommendations associated with the algorithm would have had benefits (less incarceration) but also some costs (increased sentences for youth).Citation
Stevenson, Megan T., and Jennifer L. Doleac. 2024. "Algorithmic Risk Assessment in the Hands of Humans." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 16 (4): 382–414. DOI: 10.1257/pol.20220620Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D81 Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- D91 Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
- H76 State and Local Government: Other Expenditure Categories
- K41 Litigation Process
- K42 Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
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